Autumn Internationals 2025 WK3 Italy vs. South Africa Preview: Can the Azzurri tame the mighty Springboks in Turin? November 13, 2025 by Marc Jerbs
The Autumn Internationals enters its third week with a tantalizing clash between a revitalized Italy and the reigning world champions, South Africa, at the picturesque Allianz Stadium in Turin. For the Azzurri, this fixture represents a prime opportunity to sustain their momentum following a stunning 26–19 victory over the Wallabies, while the Springboks arrive determined to assert their dominance on northern soil. With kickoff set for 12:40 PM GMT, the Italian faithful will hope their side can once again rise to the occasion under the early afternoon lights.
Under head coaches Gonzalo Quesada and Rassie Erasmus, respectively, Italy's discipline and home-grown intensity will be tested against the Springboks' trademark power, pace, and tactical depth. Both sides come off hard-fought Round 1 wins—Italy's comeback heroics against the Wallabies and South Africa's gritty triumph in Paris—setting the stage for a high-stakes encounter that pits passion against precision.
Recent Form: Momentum vs Machine
Azzurri enters this matchup riding high after their emotional victory over the Wallabies in Udine on November 8. Trailing at halftime, they roared back with tries from Louis Lynagh and Monty Ioane, while Paolo Garbisi's composure off the tee proved decisive. It marked Italy's second straight win over the Wallabies and signaled genuine progress under Quesada's system. Earlier in the year, their July tour of southern Africa—featuring two Tests against the Boks—exposed weaknesses in set-pieces but also provided valuable experience.
South Africa, meanwhile, remain a juggernaut. They began their tour by overpowering France 32–17 in Paris despite losing Lood de Jager to a red card. With tries from Jesse Kriel, Morne van den Berg, and Kurt-Lee Arendse, plus Handré Pollard's clinical boot, the Boks extended their unbeaten run in 2025. Erasmus's "bomb squad" approach—deploying fresh forwards mid-match—has continued to devastate opponents, though discipline remains an area to monitor.
Head-to-Head: History Favors the Boks
South Africa commands a dominant record, winning 15 of 16 encounters since 1995. Their average margin of victory stands at a remarkable 36 points, highlighted by the infamous 101–0 thrashing in Durban in 1999. Italy's lone win came in 2016 (20–18 in Florence), a seismic upset that remains etched in Azzurri rugby folklore.
| Date | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2025 | Cape Town | Italy 27–42 South Africa | Test Series |
| Nov 19, 2022 | Ancona | Italy 6–35 South Africa | Autumn Int. |
| Nov 19, 2016 | Florence | Italy 20–18 South Africa | Autumn Int. |
Overall Record: South Africa 15 wins (94%) – Italy 1 win (6%) – Draws: 0
Total Points: Italy 222 – South Africa 804
Rivalry Report: From Blowouts to Bold Challenges
While not a traditional rivalry, this matchup has grown into a meaningful litmus test for Italy's progress. The early years were brutal, with lopsided scorelines and a glaring gap in class. Yet Italy's 2016 win and recent competitiveness under Quesada have turned these fixtures into credible contests. The Springboks, using such matches to test squad combinations, respect Italy's evolution—especially their pace, defensive organization, and set-piece improvements.
Expect Erasmus's trademark psychological edge and Lamaro's fiery leadership to add emotional intensity. Though South Africa remains the clear favorite, Italy's growing belief at home could make this more than a routine outing for the champions.
Team News & Expected Lineups
Italy (Expected XV, 4–3–3 split)
Fischetti – Nicotera – Ferrari – N. Cannone – Ruzza – Negri – Lamaro (c) – L. Cannone – Varney – Garbisi – Ioane – Menoncello – Brex – Trulla – Capuozzo
Key Notes: Lynagh shifts to the bench despite recent heroics; Negri's lineout work and Capuozzo's counter-attacks remain central to Italy's attack.
South Africa (Expected XV, 6–2 bench)
Nché – Marx – Louw – Etzebeth – Snyman – Kolisi (c) – du Toit – Wiese – Williams – Pollard – Arendse – de Allende – Kriel – Moodie – Le Roux
Key Notes: De Jager suspended; Etzebeth's leadership and Pollard's precision are vital. Kolbe and Kwagga Smith headline a power-packed bench.
Italy vs. South Africa Sports Bet Odds
The Springboks are the favorites to win the match. Here are our latest odds:
- The Springbooks are favored by 22.5 points, with to win odds of 1.05.
- The Azzurri are the underdogs by 22.5 points, with to win odds of 9.00.
- Total is set at 56.5 points, with the under at 1.90 and the over at 1.90.
Key Battles & Tactical Outlook
Set-Piece War: Italy's 85% lineout success vs. South Africa's world-class maul led by Marx and Etzebeth.
Halfback Duel: Varney's tempo against Williams' territorial kicking; Garbisi must manage pressure under Pollard's tactical kicks.
Backline Clash: Capuozzo and Ioane bring flair, but de Allende and Arendse offer defensive steel and attacking punch.
Discipline Factor: South Africa's 14-man win over France proves resilience, yet repeated penalties could give Garbisi chances to keep Italy in touch.
Final Thought
Italy's growth under Quesada has brought renewed optimism and competitive fire to their rugby renaissance, and the Azzurri's fearless home form could once again test a global powerhouse. Yet the Springboks' blend of power, precision, and championship pedigree remains a formidable obstacle.
If Italy can disrupt the breakdown and sustain possession, they might just make history again—but South Africa's depth and discipline should see them through.
